What I Feel Is The Best Way To Be Profitable At The Races

September 8, 2009

What I Feel Is The Best Way To Be profitable At The Races

As most of you may already know I have been using PaceAppraiser since it’s inception. It has been documented that I produced 44 winners out of 121 races in last Novembers Meadowlands Survival Challenge and had a healthy ROI as well. I used PaceAppraiser and The concepts from Randy Giles book. “Extreme Pace Handicapping” as a stand alone tool. After finishing 1st in the winners category I started to look at the value aspect of handicapping and was fortunate enough to purchase a copy of Steve Fieros “The Four Quarters Of Horse Investing”. This in combination with PaceAppraiser proved to be what I needed to take my game to the next level. I am of the belief that win betting is the only way to travel. There are those that claim to be successful betting exotics, Place and show, minus pools and two horse win betting. Being a proof positive person, I would need to see this before the fact on a long term basis, What my left eye sees, my right eyes will believe. Talk is cheap.

If there are those that are willing to show us all how they can do what they say they have done, we can all learn from them. I have no doubt that there are some very sharp people out there that can indulge us all with there accomplishments before the fact and in the long term. I’ve seen lots of rhetoric  and hear say on this subject but nothing to substantiate Many faceless claims.

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Making A Living betting Horses (My Opinion Of What It May Involve And Imply)

September 7, 2009

Making A Living betting Horses (My Opinion Of What It May Involve And Imply)

If you are a casual player or weekend warrior, you do not fit into this equation.

1 – Using Programs

In my opinion, there are very few programs available that will yield  a 10% ROI and you will lose with
most.
Being a mechanical entity, most will fail to see the hidden entities that have a direct impact on a given race.
If you are successful at 10%. You would be putting $ 200,000 at risk to yield a meager $ 20,000 in a year.
can you live on that?
As well, you would be playing and handicapping 50 – 60 races a week and need a minimal $ 2000 bankroll to start.
The trick might be to keep doubling your starting bankroll. I don’t suggest playing low handle tracks.

2 – Betting To Win

Betting to win, in my mind is the only way to be successful at the game in the long run.
If you are not a value oriented player you will more then likely fail.
Betting the exotics will also cause one to fail in the long run.
It is hard enough to play into a 15 – 17% track edge. With the exotics your playing against a 24 – 27% edge.
You may get lucky on occasion but over time you will give it all back and then some.
I cannot say there may be exceptions to this, but if there are, which I strongly doubt, it would have to be proven to me.
I have not see it. Have you?

3 – Betting 2 Horses To Win

Betting 2 horses can be done, value permitting (1 -2% of bettable races) but not frequently.
There are those that say they are successful always betting 2 horses to win.
When asked them to provide their picks before the fact, they decline and say they have nothing to prove.
If this be the case, why make the statement?

4 – Place and Show Betting.

I’ll make this very short. This has never been and never be an option for me.

There are those that will disagree with my thinking. I have no quarrel with that.
However, If you have criticism on my way of thinking I have no quarrel with that as well.
Just add something constructive to the topic and in a congenial manner.

I will address all comments on my blog


SAR 09-07-09 Race – 1 (My Projected Odds Line)

September 7, 2009

Here’s another contentious turf route, that in my opinion will take a (Fast, Slow) race shape and favor the late type runner assuming there are very few scratches. If there are scratches on my odds template,  just put a line through them but don’t adjust the fair odds or add additional contenders. If there are 3 overlays, pass the race. If there are 2 overlays, bet the overlay closest to top of the template. If  there are 2 overlays at 8-1 odds or better, bet them both. If one of the contenders fall to 3/2 or less, pass the race.

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